Future climate change may affect habitat suitability for species at the Dangermond Preserve. Anticipating the effects of climate change is necessary for setting realistic conservation goals.
Methods
We selected four plant species of conservation interest. We used a statistical program called Maxent to model the relationship between where certain species occur and the related climatic conditions across California.
We forecasted the distribution of these species under two future climate scenarios:
1.Warm/wet with +10% precipitation and +2.5° Celsius temperature (emissions peak in 2040)
2.Hot/dry with -20% precipitation and +6.5° Celsius temperature (emissions rise through 2099)
We selected four plant species of conservation interest. We used a statistical program called Maxent to model the relationship between where certain species occur and the related climatic conditions across California.
We forecasted the distribution of these species under two future climate scenarios:
1.Warm/wet with +10% precipitation and +2.5° Celsius temperature (emissions peak in 2040)
2.Hot/dry with -20% precipitation and +6.5° Celsius temperature (emissions rise through 2099)
Results
Climate forecasting shows that species will respond differently to future climate scenarios. Habitat will likely remain suitable for coast live oak at the Dangermond Preserve in the future. Northern species, like tanoak, and rare species found only in Santa Barbara, like La Purisima manzanita, will likely lose suitable habitat at the preserve. However, habitat suitability for southern species like lemonade berry will likely increase at the preserve.
Climate forecasting shows that species will respond differently to future climate scenarios. Habitat will likely remain suitable for coast live oak at the Dangermond Preserve in the future. Northern species, like tanoak, and rare species found only in Santa Barbara, like La Purisima manzanita, will likely lose suitable habitat at the preserve. However, habitat suitability for southern species like lemonade berry will likely increase at the preserve.